Монетарна політика Національного Банку України у період дії воєнного стану

Abstract

У статті висвітлено теоретичні та практичні основи монетарної політики Національного банку України. Виділено характерні ознаки застосування інструментів монетарної політики у період дії воєнного стану. Проведено детальний аналіз динаміки обсягу та питомої ваги облігацій внутрішньої державної позики у структурі балансу Національного банку України. Проаналізовано зміну обсягу міжнародних резервів, валютних інтервенцій, зміни валютного курсу, визначено причини цих змін. Окремо досліджено динаміку офіційного валютного курсу, курсу на готівковому та «сірому» ринках. На основі проведеного дослідження сформовано висновки та обґрунтовано конкретні пропозиції щодо удосконалення монетарної політики Національного банку України.

The purpose of the research is to improve the theoretical and methodological foundations of the monetary policy of the National Bank of Ukraine under martial law. The article highlights the theoretical and practical foundations of the monetary policy of the National Bank of Ukraine. Characteristic features of the use of monetary policy instruments during the period of martial law are highlighted. It is noted that the stabilization of the economic situation, the state of the domestic money market, and the adaptation of the banking system to new conditions gave the National Bank of Ukraine the opportunity to improve the operational design of monetary policy, which made it possible to curb inflationary processes and ensure the protection of time deposits. The following changes have taken place in the monetary policy of the National Bank of Ukraine: reduction of the rate on overnight deposit certificates; introduction of a new instrument – limited three-month deposit certificates at a fixed rate equal to the discount rate. A detailed analysis of the dynamics of the volume and specific weight of domestic state loan bonds in the structure of the balance sheet of the National Bank of Ukraine was conducted, on the basis of which a conclusion was made about a significant increase in the volume of government bonds in the assets of the National Bank of Ukraine. The change in the volume of international reserves, currency interventions, and the exchange rate was analyzed, and the reasons for the change were determined. The dynamics of the official exchange rate, the exchange rate on the cash and "gray" markets were studied separately. On the basis of the conducted research, conclusions were formed and specific proposals were made regarding the improvement of the monetary policy of the National Bank of Ukraine. It is noted that it is advisable to return to the practice of classical inflation targeting, provided the necessary economic environment is created, characterized by such features as balanced state finances; a developed domestic financial market, a low level of dollarization of the economy, coordination of monetary and fiscal policy, which requires the National Bank of Ukraine to take effective actions to achieve these benchmarks.